Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Calculate the expected value of a bet given the odds, your stake, and your true win probability estimate.
Expected value
0.56
EV %
5.60%
Break-even probability
45.45%
This only reflects reality if your probability estimate is accurate — EV is the average outcome over many repetitions, not a prediction of any single bet.
FAQs
What is expected value in betting?
The average profit or loss you'd expect per bet if you could place the exact same bet many times — calculated from the odds, your stake, and your estimate of the true win probability.
Why is "break-even probability" useful?
It's the win rate the odds themselves imply. Comparing it to your own probability estimate is a quick sanity check on whether you think a bet is +EV or -EV.